I’m sitting in my rental car outside of eBay headquarters on a rainy day in San Francisco. I’m about to step into my second day delivering an Outthinker workshop to group of technology execs from various companies. Television news here centers on the rapidly reorganizing technology landscape: the Yelp IPO, Yahoo suing Facebook during its pre-IPO quiet period.

But the most game-changing technology news has gone mostly overlooked. Comcast, the largest U.S. cable service provider, announced it will soon launch a video-streaming service aimed at beating Netflix. It’s easy to miss the strategic importance of this move. But if you understand the strategic narrative that cable companies have played again and again to devastating effect, you will recognize this as the critical turning point in the plot.

The battle to own the “digital home” has been waging for years, but over the past 12 months, it has really heated up. Apple is rumored to be launching a television, Amazon’s video-streaming business is taking off, Samsung and other electronics firms are embedding ever more online video services into their TVs, and television channels are increasingly streaming directly. How this all plays out will have significant consequences for investors and television viewers around the country.

The future may look uncertain, but look to the past and you will see a pattern that points clearly to where things may be going. A shift is underway. Cable companies look poised to turn the tables on Netflix and other video streaming players. The recent relative stock performance of Comcast and Netflix underscores that this is happening (see the stock chart below). That in a few days Netflix will lose its rights to carry Starz video content, including my daughter’s favorite Disney films, offers yet more evidence.

This time, they leave Winnipeg as more than just first-time feature filmmakers. They’re now Hollywood consulting producers, working alongside HBO and Scott Rudin on Indie Game: The Comedy Series; the first in what they believe will be many stories pulled from the world of indie game developers. They’re winners of Sundance’s World Cinema Documentary Editing award. They also hit the road as ambassadors of a new model of digital moviemaking just as the game developer Double Fine hits over $2 million in Kickstarter funding and announces plans for a documentary crew to film their development work.

Looking forward, the Indie Game: The Movie method of content sharing and digital community building; something so unique just two weeks ago in Park City, appears to be the favorite way to make an independent movie.

"I think it’s a great way to make movies and I think it’s a great way to make anything creative because at its very base level it’s audience engagement," says James, back in his Winnipeg office. "It’s starting that conversation really, really early and kind of maintaining that relationship. We haven’t even fully released the film yet. We’ve done Sundance and two other screenings but we have already hit the ground running with 8K fans that know about our film. They know about our film in a way like beyond it simply exists. They know the story behind it. They know who’s in it and to have that at your disposal as soon as you release the film and when you hit the ground running is very, very powerful."

FLAWSOME definition:

Consumers don't expect brands to be flawless. In fact, consumers will embrace brands that are FLAWSOME*: brands that are still brilliant despite having flaws; even being flawed (and being open about it) can be awesome. Brands that show some empathy, generosity, humility, flexibility, maturity, humor, and (dare we say it) some character and humanity.

Two key drivers are fueling the FLAWSOME trend:

* Yup, FLAWSOME is by far our most cringeworthy trend name. But we bet you’ll remember it ;-)

Having dabbled in everything from financial services to video streaming, Walmart Stores is now trying its hand at producing a reality show -- turning the intense competition to get products on its shelves into an online contest with videos and voting.

The retailer's @WalmartLabs e-commerce and social-media R&D unit is today formally launching a "Get on the Shelf" program, inviting companies small and large to submit product ideas along with supporting videos. Consumers will vote on which products they'd like to see make it to Walmart .com or their local Walmart store. The top three vote-getters will be sold on Walmart .com, and a grand prize winner will be featured on the home page for its 50 million monthly unique visitors and in select Walmart stores.

That Walmart is launching the program the day "American Idol" begins its 2012 season is just a happy coincidence, a spokeswoman said. Thanks to a soft launch to work out kinks, and publicity that included mentions on Walmart 's blogs for New York City and Washington, the marketers behind some 60 products are singing for their supper at the website GetontheShelf.com.

Now we know that what we saw in the 1990s was not a mirage. It was instead a shadow, a premonition of a new business reality that is emerging every day--and this time, perhaps chastened by that first go-round, we're prepared to admit that we don't fully understand it. This new economy currently revolves around social and mobile, but those may be only the latest manifestations of a global, connected world careening ahead at great velocity.

Some pundits deride the current era as just another bubble. They point out that new, heady tech companies are garnering massive valuations: Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn. And beyond the alpha dogs, the list of startups with valuations above $200 million is long indeed: Airbnb, Dropbox, Flipboard, Foursquare, Gilt Groupe, Living Social, Rovio, Spotify--the roster goes on and on.

Setting aside the fact that the majority of these enterprises, unlike the darlings of the late-1990s, have significant revenue, so what if some companies are overvalued? That still doesn't discount the way mobile, social, and other breakthroughs are changing our way of life, not just in America but around the globe. And in the process, these changes are remaking geopolitical and business assumptions that have been in place for decades. This was not true in 2000. But it is now. Chaotic disruption is rampant, not simply from the likes of Apple, Facebook, and Google. No one predicted that General Motors would go bankrupt--and come back from the abyss with greater momentum than Toyota. No one in the car-rental industry foresaw the popularity of auto-sharing Zipcar--and Zipcar didn't foresee the rise of outfits like Uber and RelayRides, which are already trying to steal its market. Digital competition destroyed bookseller Borders, and yet the big, stodgy music labels--seemingly the ground zero for digital disruption--defy predictions of their demise. Walmart has given up trying to turn itself into a bank, but before retail bankers breathe a sigh of relief, they ought to look over their shoulders at Square and other mobile-wallet initiatives. Amid a reeling real-estate market, new players like Trulia and Zillow are gobbling up customers. Even the law business is under siege from companies like LegalZoom, an online DIY document service. "All these industries are being revolutionized," observes Pete Cashmore, the 26-year-old founder of social-news site Mashable, which has exploded overnight to reach more than 20 million users a month. "It's come to technology first, but it will reach every industry. You're going to have businesses rise and fall faster than ever."

Cadillac has always been selling that ideal. An immigrant knows it resonates.

Partalo majored in marketing at the University of Minnesota, after realizing that cultural studies and comparative lit--with a focus on the portrayal of death and dying--wasn't the right long-term play.

At Fallon, she is a planner, a data wonk. It is her job to learn what kind of person might buy an amped-up CTS-V, or care that it includes Magnetic Ride Control suspension and 19-inch wheels. To her, the buyer, not the seller, determines the narrative. It is the buyer who wants ads that reinforce his essential rightness. She only figures out who he is and what he wants to be, then shows him a spot with a Cadillac besting a Ferrari on a windy racetrack.

"It took us a while to get to this," Partalo says. "I needed to know what makes a man choose Cadillac over BMW or Lexus. So I traveled to nice restaurants around Chicago, Detroit, L.A., and New York. I interviewed the valets, those pimply 18-year-olds. What makes car owners different? They dress and tip the same. It's in how they react when the valet scratches their car. I heard consistent stories: Lexus owners don't say anything and immediately call the police and insurance company. BMW owners scream at him--'I'll have your job!' That sort of thing. But Cadillac owners pat him on the back, say, 'It's gonna be all right, kid; we'll figure it out,' and then tip him anyway and drive off."

Just last week, in "Hollywood's A-Listers Embrace Online Video, Upending the Status Quo," I noted all the various factors that are contributing to top industry talent now pursuing online-only projects. But as I've had a chance to digest last week's CES announcements, plus Hulu's news yesterday that it too is planning an aggressive originals strategy in 2012, I think it's quite likely that online-only originals are entering a "virtuous cycle." Key elements for online-only originals' success are falling into place and are poised to build on each other, combining to dramatically accelerate the growth and acceptance of this emerging class of programming.  

Those elements include: the increasing quality of the programming itself, driven by established talent; well-funded OTT distributors/producers like Netflix, YouTube, Yahoo, AOL, Hulu and others all with significant revenues and large audiences to promote to; a proliferation of connected and mobile devices that offer a user experience comparable to or better than traditional TV; robust subscription-based and ad-supported business models, the latter driven by brands' interest and sophisticated online video ad technologies; a foundation of massive online video viewership that continually educates users; well-developed discovery and social media tools to drive program launches and buzz; and finally, disillusionment with incumbent pay-TV pricing and packaging which creates interest in more economical, flexible alternatives.

It's important to note that all of these things are happening simultaneously, rather than just one or two attempting to be the locomotive, dragging along all of the others. That's the hallmark of a virtuous cycle: multiple streams of momentum feeding off of each other to make the overall velocity even greater. Virtuous cycles are powerful and quite rare. VideoNuze readers will recall that the last time I noted the onset of a virtuous cycle was for Netflix, as it accelerated its streaming efforts, in February 2010. The company went on to add nearly 13 million subscribers in the following 6 quarters, until its own poor decision-making put an end to its run.